The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted a 60% probability of a weak La Niña event forming this autumn, which may persist until March. La Niña is a phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), marked by cooler ocean temperatures in the Pacific. This phenomenon can cause global weather disruptions, with regions like northern South America possibly experiencing above-average rainfall, while the southern United States and parts of Mexico are likely to encounter drier conditions. The impact of La Niña is significant as it can affect agriculture, water resources, and natural disaster occurrences.

La Niña events typically strengthen trade winds, resulting in colder ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific. This cooling alters the jet stream’s position, often shifting it northward, which increases rainfall in certain areas and reduces it in others. Prolonged events, such as the “triple-dip” La Niña from 2020 to 2023, have drawn attention to their unusual duration. NOAA scientist Michelle L’Heureux commented on the rarity of such extended episodes, while NASA’s Ben Cook observed that recurring La Niña events could worsen droughts, especially in East Africa. While the connection between climate change and ENSO remains uncertain, some models predict a rise in El Niño events and a decline in La Niña, though this remains debated among scientists.