The Congressional Budget Office released an updated report on September 12, 2025, showing that U.S. growth will slow in 2025 due to tariff measures, immigration crackdowns, and a wide-ranging tax and spending law. The nonpartisan office projected that real GDP will decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.4% in 2025, compared with the earlier estimate of 1.9%. The slowdown is linked to weaker consumer spending and a smaller workforce. Tariffs are expected to raise costs for households and businesses, while new immigration rules are expected to reduce the labor supply. The report explained that these changes alter the path of the economy, showing weaker short-term performance but suggesting a steadier outlook in future years.

The projections indicate that GDP will rise to 2.2% in 2026 before stabilizing at 1.8% in 2027 and 2028. Unemployment is expected to peak at 4.5% in 2025, slightly above the January forecast, before easing in later years. Inflation is expected to reach 3.1% in 2025 before moderating to 2.4% in 2026. In addition, about 320,000 people could be removed over the next decade under stricter immigration enforcement, with the population projected to be 4.5 million fewer by 2035. White House officials stated that policies of tax cuts, deregulation, and energy expansion will show positive effects, while the CBO emphasized near-term challenges. Analysts described the forecast as disquieting, salient, ameliorative, tenuous, and consequential, reflecting both the immediate risks and the longer-term adjustments in the economy.