According to UN estimates, with 1.4 billion people, India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country next year. By November of this year, the world’s population will have surpassed 8 billion. Population growth, however, is not as rapid as it once was. It is now growing at its slowest rate since 1950 and is expected to peak in the 2080s at around 10.4 billion people, though some demographers believe it could happen sooner. Global population growth, on the other hand, is uneven.

At the same time, fertility rates in some of the world’s most developed economies are falling below the “replacement rate” of 2.1 children per woman. According to the report, the population of 61 countries will decline by at least 1% by 2050. China, which has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world (at 1.15 children per woman), has announced that its population will begin to decline next year, much sooner than previously anticipated. Despite the country’s abandoning its one-child policy in 2016 and implementing incentives for couples to have two or more children, as the Indian population grows, it will almost certainly overtake China as the world’s most populous country. Fertility rates are falling around the world, including in many populous countries.